[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"skill:01M76XMBGAKQM2TFDWN5760VVT":3,"skill-same:01M76XMBGAKQM2TFDWN5760VVT":45},{"skillNo":4,"name":5,"nameZh":6,"description":6,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":7,"ownerLogin":8,"ownerAvatarUrl":9,"ownerAccountNo":10,"ownerDisplayName":11,"repositoryNo":12,"starsCount":13,"licenseSpdxId":14,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":15,"categories":16,"keywords":17,"publishedAt":18,"linkOnly":19,"markdownContent":20,"markdownBody":20,"frontMatter":21,"refName":22,"commitSha":23,"skillDirectory":24,"forksCount":25,"repositoryHtmlUrl":26,"repositoryHomepageUrl":27,"ownerHtmlUrl":28,"ownerBlogUrl":6,"ownerDescription":29,"updatedAt":30,"install":31,"resources":44},"01M76XMBGAKQM2TFDWN5760VVT","afrexai-revenue-forecasting",null,"Lord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge","Lord1Egypt","https:\u002F\u002Favatars.githubusercontent.com\u002Fu\u002F99746359?v=4","01M7592YDNT0XK9WJ0T2MQVPDN","Mohamed Mounir Ali AL Keshita","01M75GRFNHC8VZNWEB8DKDE433",3,"MIT","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FLord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge\u002Fblob\u002Fmaster\u002Fcommunity\u002Fclawhub\u002Fa\u002Fafrexai-revenue-forecasting\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],"2026-11-12 13:55:43",false,"# Revenue Forecasting Engine\n\nBuild accurate, data-driven revenue forecasts your board and investors actually trust.\n\n## What This Does\n\nGenerates a complete revenue forecasting model covering:\n\n1. **Pipeline-Weighted Forecast** — Apply stage-specific close rates to your current pipeline\n2. **Cohort Analysis** — Track revenue by customer cohort with expansion\u002Fcontraction\u002Fchurn\n3. **Scenario Modeling** — Bear\u002Fbase\u002Fbull projections with probability weighting\n4. **Seasonality Adjustments** — Monthly coefficients based on your historical patterns\n5. **Leading Indicators** — Track signals that predict revenue 60-90 days out\n\n## Instructions\n\nWhen the user asks for a revenue forecast, follow this framework:\n\n### Step 1: Gather Inputs\nAsk for (or use available data):\n- Current MRR\u002FARR\n- Pipeline by stage with deal values\n- Historical close rates by stage\n- Average sales cycle length\n- Net revenue retention rate\n- Expansion revenue %\n\n### Step 2: Build the Pipeline Forecast\n\n**Stage-Weighted Model:**\n\n| Stage | Probability | Weighted Value |\n|-------|------------|----------------|\n| Discovery | 10% | Deal × 0.10 |\n| Demo\u002FEval | 25% | Deal × 0.25 |\n| Proposal Sent | 50% | Deal × 0.50 |\n| Negotiation | 75% | Deal × 0.75 |\n| Verbal Commit | 90% | Deal × 0.90 |\n| Closed Won | 100% | Deal × 1.00 |\n\n**Adjustment factors:**\n- Deal age penalty: -5% per month past avg cycle\n- Champion risk: -20% if no identified champion\n- Budget confirmed: +10% if budget is allocated\n- Competitive deal: -15% if competitor identified\n\n### Step 3: Cohort Revenue Model\n\nTrack each monthly cohort:\n```\nMonth 0: New MRR from cohort\nMonth 1: Retained MRR × (1 - monthly churn rate)\nMonth 3: Add expansion revenue (avg 2-5% monthly for healthy SaaS)\nMonth 6: Steady-state retention rate applies\nMonth 12: Mature cohort — use net revenue retention\n```\n\n**Benchmarks by company stage:**\n| Metric | Seed | Series A | Series B+ |\n|--------|------|----------|-----------|\n| Gross Churn | 3-5%\u002Fmo | 2-3%\u002Fmo | 1-2%\u002Fmo |\n| Net Retention | 90-100% | 100-110% | 110-130% |\n| Expansion % | 5-10% | 10-20% | 20-40% |\n| CAC Payback | 18-24 mo | 12-18 mo | 6-12 mo |\n\n### Step 4: Scenario Analysis\n\n**Bear Case (20% probability):**\n- Pipeline closes at 60% of weighted value\n- Churn increases 50%\n- No expansion revenue\n- 1 key deal slips each quarter\n\n**Base Case (60% probability):**\n- Pipeline closes at weighted value\n- Current retention rates hold\n- Historical expansion rate\n- Normal seasonality\n\n**Bull Case (20% probability):**\n- Pipeline closes at 120% of weighted value\n- Retention improves 10%\n- Expansion accelerates 25%\n- 1 surprise large deal per quarter\n\n**Expected Value = (Bear × 0.2) + (Base × 0.6) + (Bull × 0.2)**\n\n### Step 5: Seasonality Coefficients\n\nApply monthly adjustment factors:\n| Month | B2B SaaS | Ecommerce | Professional Services |\n|-------|----------|-----------|---------------------|\n| Jan | 0.85 | 0.70 | 0.90 |\n| Feb | 0.90 | 0.75 | 0.95 |\n| Mar | 1.05 | 0.85 | 1.10 |\n| Apr | 1.00 | 0.90 | 1.00 |\n| May | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.95 |\n| Jun | 1.10 | 0.95 | 1.05 |\n| Jul | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 |\n| Aug | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.80 |\n| Sep | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.10 |\n| Oct | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 |\n| Nov | 1.15 | 1.40 | 1.10 |\n| Dec | 1.20 | 1.75 | 1.15 |\n\n### Step 6: Leading Indicators Dashboard\n\nTrack these weekly — they predict revenue 60-90 days out:\n\n| Indicator | Weight | Signal |\n|-----------|--------|--------|\n| Qualified pipeline created | 25% | New opps entering Stage 2+ |\n| Demo-to-proposal rate | 20% | Conversion velocity |\n| Average deal size trend | 15% | Moving up or down? |\n| Sales cycle length | 15% | Getting longer = red flag |\n| Inbound lead volume | 10% | Marketing effectiveness |\n| Website trial signups | 10% | Self-serve demand |\n| Customer NPS\u002FCSAT | 5% | Retention predictor |\n\n### Step 7: Output Format\n\nPresent the forecast as:\n\n```\nREVENUE FORECAST — [Period]\n================================\nCurrent ARR: $X\nPipeline (Weighted): $X\nExpected New ARR: $X\n\n12-Month Projection:\n  Bear:  $X (20%)\n  Base:  $X (60%)\n  Bull:  $X (20%)\n  Expected: $X\n\nKey Risks:\n  1. [Risk] — [Mitigation]\n  2. [Risk] — [Mitigation]\n\nLeading Indicators:\n  🟢 [Healthy metric]\n  🟡 [Watch metric]\n  🔴 [Concerning metric]\n\nNext Month Actions:\n  1. [Specific action]\n  2. [Specific action]\n```\n\n## Red Flags to Call Out\n\n- Pipeline coverage \u003C 3x target = high risk\n- >40% of forecast from 1-2 deals = concentration risk\n- Average deal age exceeding 1.5x normal cycle = stalling\n- Declining demo-to-close rate = product-market fit erosion\n- Rising CAC payback period = unit economics degrading\n\n## Revenue Recognition Notes\n\n- SaaS: Recognize ratably over contract term\n- Services: Recognize on delivery\u002Fmilestones\n- Usage-based: Recognize on consumption\n- Annual prepay: Deferred revenue, recognize monthly\n\n---\n\n*Built by [AfrexAI](https:\u002F\u002Fafrexai-cto.github.io\u002Fcontext-packs\u002F) — AI context packs for business operators who ship.*\n\n**Get the full toolkit:**\n- [AI Revenue Leak Calculator](https:\u002F\u002Fafrexai-cto.github.io\u002Fai-revenue-calculator\u002F) — Find where you're losing money\n- [Context Packs](https:\u002F\u002Fafrexai-cto.github.io\u002Fcontext-packs\u002F) — Industry-specific AI agent configs ($47\u002Fpack)\n- [Agent Setup Wizard](https:\u002F\u002Fafrexai-cto.github.io\u002Fagent-setup\u002F) — Deploy your first AI agent in 15 minutes\n\n**Bundles:** Playbook $27 | Pick 3 for $97 | All 10 for $197 | Everything Bundle $247\n",{},"master","4aa004da461d820f4ea5499e58eb8d196cf99016","community\u002Fclawhub\u002Fa\u002Fafrexai-revenue-forecasting",0,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FLord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge","https:\u002F\u002Fskill-explorer-rho.vercel.app","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FLord1Egypt","Unbreakable. Unstoppable. Unmatched⚡.\r\n Speaker of machine tongues 🤖  | World-builder of decentralized dreams 🌐 | Defender of the digital realm🛡️.","2026-06-10 08:21:01",{"source":7,"skillName":5,"commands":32,"prompt":42,"zipAvailable":43},[33,36,39],{"tool":34,"command":35},"npx","npx skills add Lord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge --skill afrexai-revenue-forecasting",{"tool":37,"command":38},"bunx","bunx skills add Lord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge --skill afrexai-revenue-forecasting",{"tool":40,"command":41},"pnpm","pnpm dlx skills add Lord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge --skill afrexai-revenue-forecasting","安装技能，技能地址：https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FLord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge\u002Fblob\u002Fmaster\u002Fcommunity\u002Fclawhub\u002Fa\u002Fafrexai-revenue-forecasting\u002FSKILL.md",true,[],[46,54,61,68,75,82],{"skillNo":47,"name":48,"nameZh":6,"description":49,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":7,"ownerLogin":8,"ownerAvatarUrl":9,"ownerAccountNo":10,"ownerDisplayName":11,"repositoryNo":12,"starsCount":13,"licenseSpdxId":14,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":50,"categories":51,"keywords":52,"publishedAt":53},"01M785WKJB99G3STR1NF9NRTJW","youtube-content","YouTube transcripts to summaries, threads, blogs.","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FLord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge\u002Fblob\u002Fmaster\u002Fskills\u002Fyoutube-content\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],"2026-11-15 14:19:17",{"skillNo":55,"name":56,"nameZh":6,"description":57,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":7,"ownerLogin":8,"ownerAvatarUrl":9,"ownerAccountNo":10,"ownerDisplayName":11,"repositoryNo":12,"starsCount":13,"licenseSpdxId":14,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":58,"categories":59,"keywords":60,"publishedAt":53},"01M785WEFHB0G2S9YA6EPR3H0E","xurl","X\u002FTwitter via xurl CLI: post, search, DM, media, v2 API.","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FLord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge\u002Fblob\u002Fmaster\u002Fskills\u002Fxurl\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],{"skillNo":62,"name":63,"nameZh":6,"description":64,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":7,"ownerLogin":8,"ownerAvatarUrl":9,"ownerAccountNo":10,"ownerDisplayName":11,"repositoryNo":12,"starsCount":13,"licenseSpdxId":14,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":65,"categories":66,"keywords":67,"publishedAt":53},"01M785W98EDN4EFJXJPMQEHCRC","touchdesigner-mcp","Control a running TouchDesigner instance via twozero MCP — create operators, set parameters, wire connections, execute Python, build real-time visuals. 36 native tools.","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FLord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge\u002Fblob\u002Fmaster\u002Fskills\u002Ftouchdesigner-mcp\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],{"skillNo":69,"name":70,"nameZh":6,"description":71,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":7,"ownerLogin":8,"ownerAvatarUrl":9,"ownerAccountNo":10,"ownerDisplayName":11,"repositoryNo":12,"starsCount":13,"licenseSpdxId":14,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":72,"categories":73,"keywords":74,"publishedAt":53},"01M785W5S9FP3QBH2V191E025P","test-driven-development","TDD: enforce RED-GREEN-REFACTOR, tests before code.","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FLord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge\u002Fblob\u002Fmaster\u002Fskills\u002Ftest-driven-development\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],{"skillNo":76,"name":77,"nameZh":6,"description":78,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":7,"ownerLogin":8,"ownerAvatarUrl":9,"ownerAccountNo":10,"ownerDisplayName":11,"repositoryNo":12,"starsCount":13,"licenseSpdxId":14,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":79,"categories":80,"keywords":81,"publishedAt":53},"01M785W2AS08NSSH9YATCV6FJB","teams-meeting-pipeline","Operate the Teams meeting summary pipeline via Hermes CLI — summarize meetings, inspect pipeline status, replay jobs, manage Microsoft Graph subscriptions.","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FLord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge\u002Fblob\u002Fmaster\u002Fskills\u002Fteams-meeting-pipeline\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],{"skillNo":83,"name":84,"nameZh":6,"description":85,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":7,"ownerLogin":8,"ownerAvatarUrl":9,"ownerAccountNo":10,"ownerDisplayName":11,"repositoryNo":12,"starsCount":13,"licenseSpdxId":14,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":86,"categories":87,"keywords":88,"publishedAt":53},"01M785VXKW4T34BTP1SCHW1R7F","systematic-debugging","4-phase root cause debugging: understand bugs before fixing.","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FLord1Egypt\u002Fawesome-skill-forge\u002Fblob\u002Fmaster\u002Fskills\u002Fsystematic-debugging\u002FSKILL.md",[],[]]