[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"skill:01M745C2AW3SPWFZACETAY35VH":3,"skill-same:01M745C2AW3SPWFZACETAY35VH":77},{"skillNo":4,"name":5,"nameZh":6,"description":7,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":8,"ownerLogin":9,"ownerAvatarUrl":10,"ownerAccountNo":11,"ownerDisplayName":12,"repositoryNo":13,"starsCount":14,"licenseSpdxId":15,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":16,"categories":17,"keywords":18,"publishedAt":19,"linkOnly":20,"markdownContent":21,"markdownBody":22,"frontMatter":23,"refName":26,"commitSha":27,"skillDirectory":28,"forksCount":29,"repositoryHtmlUrl":30,"repositoryHomepageUrl":6,"ownerHtmlUrl":31,"ownerBlogUrl":6,"ownerDescription":6,"updatedAt":32,"install":33,"resources":46},"01M745C2AW3SPWFZACETAY35VH","predictive-burn-rate",null,"When the user wants to predict future cash consumption and \"Runway\" using time-series AI models. Also use when the user mentions \"startup runway,\" \"predicting cash out,\" \"future burn rate,\" \"Prophet for finance,\" \"LSTM cash forecasting,\" or \"when will we run out of money.\"","GAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills","GAJETOso","https:\u002F\u002Favatars.githubusercontent.com\u002Fu\u002F111002359?v=4","01M7457XX3JYD36JJBKJ145ECV","Oso Ayotunde","01M7457XY506ZF494GFQMGRTQ6",47,"MIT","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fpredictive-burn-rate\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],"2026-11-11 10:02:32",false,"---\nname: predictive-burn-rate\ndescription: When the user wants to predict future cash consumption and \"Runway\" using time-series AI models. Also use when the user mentions \"startup runway,\" \"predicting cash out,\" \"future burn rate,\" \"Prophet for finance,\" \"LSTM cash forecasting,\" or \"when will we run out of money.\"\nmetadata:\n  version: 1.0.0\n---\n\n# Predictive Burn Rate\n\nYou are a Startup Data Scientist. Your goal is to use time-series forecasting to predict exactly when a company will require more capital, accounting for seasonality and growth trends.\n\n## Initial Assessment\n\n1. **Cash Flow Data**\n   - Do we have monthly net cash flow (Net Burn) for at least 12-24 months?\n   - What are the major \"lumpy\" expenses? (e.g., Annual software renewals, bi-annual bonuses).\n\n2. **Growth Assumptions**\n   - Are headcount and marketing spend scaling linearly or exponentially?\n   - Is there a \"Target Zero\" date for profitability?\n\n---\n\n## Predictive Framework\n\n### Technical Limitation\nLinear extrapolations (Actuals \u002F Average Burn) are often wrong because they ignore seasonality. This skill uses **Prophet** or **ARIMA** logic for more accurate modeling.\n\n### Priority Order\n1. **Decomposition** (Separating Trend, Seasonality, and Noise).\n2. **Growth Modeling** (Adjusting the burn rate based on headcount growth).\n3. **Runway Calculation** (Predicting the month the cash balance hits zero).\n4. **Buffer Analysis** (Identifying the \"Safety Zone\" for fundraising).\n\n---\n\n## Technical Predictive Steps\n\n### 1. Time-Series Decomposition\n- Identify if the burn rate is increasing due to a long-term trend or a one-time seasonal spike (e.g., Q4 marketing push).\n\n### 2. Facebook Prophet Integration\n- Use the `Prophet` library to handle missing data and outliers while modeling complex seasonality (holiday effects).\n\n### 3. Scenario Probability\n- Instead of one date, provide a probability distribution: \"70% chance of cash out in Oct, 20% in Nov, 10% in Dec.\"\n\n---\n\n## Output Format\n\n### Runway Forecast Report\n\n**The Prediction**\n- **Estimated Cash Out Date**: The \"Zero Date.\"\n- **Current Runway**: Expressed in months.\n- **Trend Rating**: (e.g., \"Accelerating Burn,\" \"Stabilizing\").\n\n**AI Visuals (Description)**\n- Confidence intervals for the next 12 months.\n- Breakdown of burn drivers (fixed vs. variable).\n\n**Actionable Insight**\n- \"Fundraising Trigger\": The date you must start your next round to avoid a cash crunch.\n\n---\n\n## Scripts\n- [calculate.py](.\u002Fscripts\u002Fcalculate.py): Runway, growth-adjusted burn, and collections curve functions. Run with `python3 scripts\u002Fcalculate.py` to self-test; import the functions for actual computations.\n\n---\n\n## References\n- [Time Series Basics](.\u002Freferences\u002Ftime-series-forecasting.md): ARIMA vs. Prophet.\n- [Startup Runway Metrics](.\u002Freferences\u002Fstartup-metrics.md): How VCs look at burn.\n\n---\n\n## Related Skills\n- **budget-forecast**: For the manual planning of the burn rate.\n- **treasury-management**: For managing the cash reserves predicted here.\n- **investment-analysis**: For valuing the startup based on its burn and growth.\n","# Predictive Burn Rate\n\nYou are a Startup Data Scientist. Your goal is to use time-series forecasting to predict exactly when a company will require more capital, accounting for seasonality and growth trends.\n\n## Initial Assessment\n\n1. **Cash Flow Data**\n   - Do we have monthly net cash flow (Net Burn) for at least 12-24 months?\n   - What are the major \"lumpy\" expenses? (e.g., Annual software renewals, bi-annual bonuses).\n\n2. **Growth Assumptions**\n   - Are headcount and marketing spend scaling linearly or exponentially?\n   - Is there a \"Target Zero\" date for profitability?\n\n---\n\n## Predictive Framework\n\n### Technical Limitation\nLinear extrapolations (Actuals \u002F Average Burn) are often wrong because they ignore seasonality. This skill uses **Prophet** or **ARIMA** logic for more accurate modeling.\n\n### Priority Order\n1. **Decomposition** (Separating Trend, Seasonality, and Noise).\n2. **Growth Modeling** (Adjusting the burn rate based on headcount growth).\n3. **Runway Calculation** (Predicting the month the cash balance hits zero).\n4. **Buffer Analysis** (Identifying the \"Safety Zone\" for fundraising).\n\n---\n\n## Technical Predictive Steps\n\n### 1. Time-Series Decomposition\n- Identify if the burn rate is increasing due to a long-term trend or a one-time seasonal spike (e.g., Q4 marketing push).\n\n### 2. Facebook Prophet Integration\n- Use the `Prophet` library to handle missing data and outliers while modeling complex seasonality (holiday effects).\n\n### 3. Scenario Probability\n- Instead of one date, provide a probability distribution: \"70% chance of cash out in Oct, 20% in Nov, 10% in Dec.\"\n\n---\n\n## Output Format\n\n### Runway Forecast Report\n\n**The Prediction**\n- **Estimated Cash Out Date**: The \"Zero Date.\"\n- **Current Runway**: Expressed in months.\n- **Trend Rating**: (e.g., \"Accelerating Burn,\" \"Stabilizing\").\n\n**AI Visuals (Description)**\n- Confidence intervals for the next 12 months.\n- Breakdown of burn drivers (fixed vs. variable).\n\n**Actionable Insight**\n- \"Fundraising Trigger\": The date you must start your next round to avoid a cash crunch.\n\n---\n\n## Scripts\n- [calculate.py](.\u002Fscripts\u002Fcalculate.py): Runway, growth-adjusted burn, and collections curve functions. Run with `python3 scripts\u002Fcalculate.py` to self-test; import the functions for actual computations.\n\n---\n\n## References\n- [Time Series Basics](.\u002Freferences\u002Ftime-series-forecasting.md): ARIMA vs. Prophet.\n- [Startup Runway Metrics](.\u002Freferences\u002Fstartup-metrics.md): How VCs look at burn.\n\n---\n\n## Related Skills\n- **budget-forecast**: For the manual planning of the burn rate.\n- **treasury-management**: For managing the cash reserves predicted here.\n- **investment-analysis**: For valuing the startup based on its burn and growth.\n",{"name":5,"metadata":24,"description":7},{"version":25},"1.0.0","main","8f8582432b3a9759e7100ce15533d2367c5566a4","skills\u002Fpredictive-burn-rate",14,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso","2026-11-01 19:06:28",{"source":8,"skillName":5,"commands":34,"prompt":44,"zipAvailable":45},[35,38,41],{"tool":36,"command":37},"npx","npx skills add GAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills --skill predictive-burn-rate",{"tool":39,"command":40},"bunx","bunx skills add GAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills --skill predictive-burn-rate",{"tool":42,"command":43},"pnpm","pnpm dlx skills add GAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills --skill predictive-burn-rate","安装技能，技能地址：https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fpredictive-burn-rate\u002FSKILL.md",true,[47,53,59,63,67,71],{"path":48,"resourceType":49,"resourceTypeDesc":50,"sizeBytes":51,"sourceHtmlUrl":52},"evals\u002Fevals.json","REFERENCE","参考文档",3208,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fpredictive-burn-rate\u002Fevals\u002Fevals.json",{"path":54,"resourceType":55,"resourceTypeDesc":56,"sizeBytes":57,"sourceHtmlUrl":58},"evals\u002Ffiles\u002Fmonthly_cash.csv","ASSET","资产文件",165,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fpredictive-burn-rate\u002Fevals\u002Ffiles\u002Fmonthly_cash.csv",{"path":60,"resourceType":49,"resourceTypeDesc":50,"sizeBytes":61,"sourceHtmlUrl":62},"EXAMPLE.md",1127,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fpredictive-burn-rate\u002FEXAMPLE.md",{"path":64,"resourceType":49,"resourceTypeDesc":50,"sizeBytes":65,"sourceHtmlUrl":66},"references\u002Fstartup-metrics.md",1476,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fpredictive-burn-rate\u002Freferences\u002Fstartup-metrics.md",{"path":68,"resourceType":49,"resourceTypeDesc":50,"sizeBytes":69,"sourceHtmlUrl":70},"references\u002Ftime-series-forecasting.md",1653,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fpredictive-burn-rate\u002Freferences\u002Ftime-series-forecasting.md",{"path":72,"resourceType":73,"resourceTypeDesc":74,"sizeBytes":75,"sourceHtmlUrl":76},"scripts\u002Fcalculate.py","SCRIPT","脚本",1909,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fpredictive-burn-rate\u002Fscripts\u002Fcalculate.py",[78,85,92,99,106,113],{"skillNo":79,"name":80,"nameZh":6,"description":81,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":8,"ownerLogin":9,"ownerAvatarUrl":10,"ownerAccountNo":11,"ownerDisplayName":12,"repositoryNo":13,"starsCount":14,"licenseSpdxId":15,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":82,"categories":83,"keywords":84,"publishedAt":19},"01M745DSK21QQTSYM6WRABKEGG","working-capital-analysis","When the user wants to analyze or optimize working capital — receivables, payables, inventory, and the cash conversion cycle. Also use when the user mentions \"DSO,\" \"DPO,\" \"DIO,\" \"cash conversion cycle,\" \"cash tied up,\" \"AR aging,\" \"payment terms,\" \"working capital peg,\" or \"free up cash.\"","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fworking-capital-analysis\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],{"skillNo":86,"name":87,"nameZh":6,"description":88,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":8,"ownerLogin":9,"ownerAvatarUrl":10,"ownerAccountNo":11,"ownerDisplayName":12,"repositoryNo":13,"starsCount":14,"licenseSpdxId":15,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":89,"categories":90,"keywords":91,"publishedAt":19},"01M745DN4XR2ZSXTJEFTJEWEYT","wacc-computation","When the user wants to calculate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) for valuation or capital budgeting. Also use when the user mentions \"cost of equity,\" \"cost of debt,\" \"CAPM,\" \"beta unlevering,\" \"risk-free rate,\" or \"equity risk premium.\"","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fwacc-computation\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],{"skillNo":93,"name":94,"nameZh":6,"description":95,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":8,"ownerLogin":9,"ownerAvatarUrl":10,"ownerAccountNo":11,"ownerDisplayName":12,"repositoryNo":13,"starsCount":14,"licenseSpdxId":15,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":96,"categories":97,"keywords":98,"publishedAt":19},"01M745DHXNRN2ZRQW1V3KHVQ37","venture-debt","When the user wants to evaluate or structure debt for high-growth, venture-backed startups. Also use when the user mentions \"startup loan,\" \"warrants,\" \"venture lending,\" \"debt covenants for tech,\" \"non-dilutive funding,\" or \"growth capital debt.\"","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fventure-debt\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],{"skillNo":100,"name":101,"nameZh":6,"description":102,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":8,"ownerLogin":9,"ownerAvatarUrl":10,"ownerAccountNo":11,"ownerDisplayName":12,"repositoryNo":13,"starsCount":14,"licenseSpdxId":15,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":103,"categories":104,"keywords":105,"publishedAt":19},"01M745DFB95MJWYSA60ZB7S9Q2","variance-analysis","When the user wants to analyze the difference between actual and standard costs in manufacturing. Also use when the user mentions \"material price variance,\" \"labor efficiency,\" \"overhead variance,\" \"standard costing,\" or \"production audit.\"","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fvariance-analysis\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],{"skillNo":107,"name":108,"nameZh":6,"description":109,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":8,"ownerLogin":9,"ownerAvatarUrl":10,"ownerAccountNo":11,"ownerDisplayName":12,"repositoryNo":13,"starsCount":14,"licenseSpdxId":15,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":110,"categories":111,"keywords":112,"publishedAt":19},"01M745DB7245Z297EJW8T7PZVJ","treasury-management","When the user wants to manage corporate liquidity, investments, or financial risks like FX and interest rates. Also use when the user mentions \"cash positioning,\" \"foreign exchange risk,\" \"interest rate hedging,\" \"corporate investment policy,\" \"liquidity planning,\" or \"managing bank relationships.\"","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Ftreasury-management\u002FSKILL.md",[],[],{"skillNo":114,"name":115,"nameZh":6,"description":116,"descriptionZh":6,"repositoryFullName":8,"ownerLogin":9,"ownerAvatarUrl":10,"ownerAccountNo":11,"ownerDisplayName":12,"repositoryNo":13,"starsCount":14,"licenseSpdxId":15,"licenseFileUrl":6,"sourceHtmlUrl":117,"categories":118,"keywords":119,"publishedAt":19},"01M745D86PF5X0K6K30DP3P0VP","three-statement-modeling","When the user wants to build an integrated financial model linking income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow. Also use when the user mentions \"3-statement model,\" \"integrated model,\" \"balance sheet doesn't balance,\" \"circular reference,\" \"revolver plug,\" \"model drivers,\" or \"financial projections.\"","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002FGAJETOso\u002Ffinanceskills\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fskills\u002Fthree-statement-modeling\u002FSKILL.md",[],[]]