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Use when facing complex risk scenarios, strategic decisions with major downside, or when the user asks 'what if X AND Y both happen?'","oabdelmaksoud\u002FSuperClaw","oabdelmaksoud","https:\u002F\u002Favatars.githubusercontent.com\u002Fu\u002F50699149?v=4","01M6D5CVVN778ZCDP1WHS816SP","Omar Abdelmaksoud","01M6D5CW1RHNSKCJR85GJACBFT",2,"MIT","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Foabdelmaksoud\u002FSuperClaw\u002Fblob\u002Fmain\u002Fupstream-sync\u002Fwork\u002Fclaude-skills\u002Fc-level-advisor\u002Fscenario-war-room\u002FSKILL.md",[],[19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33],"scenario war room","scenario","testing","stress testing","planning","risk","decisions","user","business","use","models","functions","compound","across","modeling","2026-11-10 10:12:30",false,"---\nname: scenario-war-room\ndescription: \"Cross-functional what-if modeling for cascading multi-variable scenarios. Unlike single-assumption stress testing, this models compound adversity across all business functions simultaneously. Use when facing complex risk scenarios, strategic decisions with major downside, or when the user asks 'what if X AND Y both happen?'\"\nlicense: MIT\nmetadata:\n  version: 1.0.0\n  author: Alireza Rezvani\n  category: c-level\n  domain: strategic-planning\n  updated: 2026-03-05\n  python-tools: scenario_modeler.py\n  frameworks: scenario-planning\n---\n\n# Scenario War Room\n\nModel cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next.\n\n## Keywords\nscenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem\n\n## Quick Start\n\n```bash\npython scripts\u002Fscenario_modeler.py   # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling\n```\n\nOr describe the scenario:\n```\n\u002Fwar-room \"What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?\"\n\u002Fwar-room \"What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?\"\n\u002Fwar-room \"What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?\"\n```\n\n## What This Is Not\n\n- **Not** a single-assumption stress test (that's `\u002Fem:stress-test`)\n- **Not** financial modeling only — every function gets modeled\n- **Not** worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels\n- **Not** paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers\n\n## Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model\n\n### Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3)\nState each variable with:\n- **What changes** — specific, quantified if possible\n- **Probability** — your best estimate\n- **Timeline** — when it hits\n\n```\nVariable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice\n  Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days\n\nVariable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close\n  Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3\n\nVariable C: Lead engineer resigns\n  Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown\n```\n\n### Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping\n\nFor each variable, each relevant role models impact:\n\n| Domain | Owner | Models |\n|--------|-------|--------|\n| Cash & runway | CFO | Burn impact, runway change, bridge options |\n| Revenue | CRO | ARR gap, churn cascade risk, pipeline |\n| Product | CPO | Roadmap impact, PMF risk |\n| Engineering | CTO | Velocity impact, key person risk |\n| People | CHRO | Attrition cascade, hiring freeze implications |\n| Operations | COO | Capacity, OKR impact, process risk |\n| Security | CISO | Compliance timeline risk |\n| Market | CMO | CAC impact, competitive exposure |\n\n### Step 3: Cascade Effect Mapping\n\nThis is the core. Show how Variable A triggers consequences in domains that trigger Variable B's effects:\n\n```\nTRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR)\n  ↓\nCFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months\n  ↓\nCHRO: Hiring freeze; retention risk increases (morale hit)\n  ↓\nCTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen; roadmap slips\n  ↓\nCPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → customer retention risk\n  ↓\nCRO: NRR drops; existing accounts see reduced velocity → more churn risk\n  ↓\nCFO: [Secondary cascade — potential death spiral if not interrupted]\n```\n\nName the cascade explicitly. Show where it can be interrupted.\n\n### Step 4: Severity Matrix\n\nModel three scenarios:\n\n| Scenario | Definition | Recovery |\n|----------|------------|---------|\n| **Base** | One variable hits; others don't | Manageable with plan |\n| **Stress** | Two variables hit simultaneously | Requires significant response |\n| **Severe** | All variables hit; full cascade | Existential; requires board intervention |\n\nFor each severity level:\n- Runway impact\n- ARR impact\n- Headcount impact\n- Timeline to unacceptable state (trigger point)\n\n### Step 5: Trigger Points (Early Warning Signals)\n\nDefine the measurable signal that tells you a scenario is unfolding **before** it's confirmed:\n\n```\nTrigger for Customer Churn Risk:\n  - Sponsor goes dark for >3 weeks\n  - Usage drops >25% MoM\n  - No Q1 QBR confirmed by Dec 1\n\nTrigger for Fundraise Delay:\n  - \u003C3 term sheets after 60 days of process\n  - Lead investor requests >30-day extension on DD\n  - Competitor raises at lower valuation (market signal)\n\nTrigger for Engineering Attrition:\n  - Glassdoor activity from engineering team\n  - 2+ referral interview requests from engineers\n  - Above-market offer counter-required in last 3 months\n```\n\n### Step 6: Hedging Strategies\n\nFor each scenario: actions to take **now** (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does.\n\n| Hedge | Cost | Impact | Owner | Deadline |\n|-------|------|--------|-------|---------|\n| Establish $500K credit line | $5K\u002Fyear | Buys 3 months if churn hits | CFO | 60 days |\n| 12-month retention bonus for 3 key engineers | $90K | Locks team through fundraise | CHRO | 30 days |\n| Diversify to \u003C20% revenue concentration per customer | Sales effort | Reduces single-customer risk | CRO | 2 quarters |\n| Compress fundraise timeline, start parallel process | CEO time | Closes before runways merge | CEO | Immediate |\n\n---\n\n## Output Format\n\nEvery war room session produces:\n\n```\nSCENARIO: [Name]\nVariables: [A, B, C]\nMost likely path: [which combination actually plays out, with probability]\n\nSEVERITY LEVELS\nBase (A only): [runway\u002FARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]\nStress (A+B): [runway\u002FARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]\nSevere (A+B+C): [runway\u002FARR impact] — existential risk: [yes\u002Fno]\n\nCASCADE MAP\n[A → domain impact → B trigger → domain impact → end state]\n\nEARLY WARNING SIGNALS\n- [Signal 1 → which scenario it indicates]\n- [Signal 2 → which scenario it indicates]\n- [Signal 3 → which scenario it indicates]\n\nHEDGES (take these actions now)\n1. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]\n2. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]\n3. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]\n\nRECOMMENDED DECISION\n[One paragraph. What to do, in what order, and why.]\n```\n\n---\n\n## Rules for Good War Room Sessions\n\n**Max 3 variables per scenario.** More than 3 is noise — you can't meaningfully prepare for 5-variable collapse. Model the 3 that actually worry you.\n\n**Quantify or estimate.** \"Revenue drops\" is not useful. \"$420K ARR at risk over 60 days\" is. Use ranges if uncertain.\n\n**Don't stop at first-order effects.** The damage is always in the cascade, not the initial hit.\n\n**Model recovery, not just impact.** Every scenario should have a \"what we do\" path.\n\n**Separate base case from sensitivity.** Don't conflate \"what probably happens\" with \"what could happen.\"\n\n**Don't over-model.** 3-4 scenarios per planning cycle is the right number. More creates analysis paralysis.\n\n---\n\n## Common Scenarios by Stage\n\n**Seed:**\n- Co-founder leaves + product misses launch\n- Funding runs out + bridge terms unfavorable\n\n**Series A:**\n- Miss ARR target + fundraise delayed\n- Key customer churns + competitor raises\n\n**Series B:**\n- Market contraction + burn multiple spikes\n- Lead investor wants pivot + team resists\n\n## Integration with C-Suite Roles\n\n| Scenario Type | Primary Roles | Cascade To |\n|--------------|---------------|------------|\n| Revenue miss | CRO, CFO | CMO (pipeline), COO (cuts), CHRO (layoffs) |\n| Key person departure | CHRO, COO | CTO (if eng), CRO (if sales) |\n| Fundraise failure | CFO, CEO | COO (runway extension), CHRO (hiring freeze) |\n| Security breach | CISO, CTO | CEO (comms), CFO (cost), CRO (customer impact) |\n| Market shift | CEO, CPO | CMO (repositioning), CRO (new segments) |\n| Competitor move | CMO, CRO | CPO (roadmap response), CEO (strategy) |\n\n## References\n- `references\u002Fscenario-planning.md` — Shell methodology, pre-mortem, Monte Carlo, cascade frameworks\n- `scripts\u002Fscenario_modeler.py` — CLI tool for structured scenario modeling\n","# Scenario War Room\n\nModel cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next.\n\n## Keywords\nscenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem\n\n## Quick Start\n\n```bash\npython scripts\u002Fscenario_modeler.py   # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling\n```\n\nOr describe the scenario:\n```\n\u002Fwar-room \"What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?\"\n\u002Fwar-room \"What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?\"\n\u002Fwar-room \"What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?\"\n```\n\n## What This Is Not\n\n- **Not** a single-assumption stress test (that's `\u002Fem:stress-test`)\n- **Not** financial modeling only — every function gets modeled\n- **Not** worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels\n- **Not** paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers\n\n## Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model\n\n### Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3)\nState each variable with:\n- **What changes** — specific, quantified if possible\n- **Probability** — your best estimate\n- **Timeline** — when it hits\n\n```\nVariable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice\n  Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days\n\nVariable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close\n  Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3\n\nVariable C: Lead engineer resigns\n  Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown\n```\n\n### Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping\n\nFor each variable, each relevant role models impact:\n\n| Domain | Owner | Models |\n|--------|-------|--------|\n| Cash & runway | CFO | Burn impact, runway change, bridge options |\n| Revenue | CRO | ARR gap, churn cascade risk, pipeline |\n| Product | CPO | Roadmap impact, PMF risk |\n| Engineering | CTO | Velocity impact, key person risk |\n| People | CHRO | Attrition cascade, hiring freeze implications |\n| Operations | COO | Capacity, OKR impact, process risk |\n| Security | CISO | Compliance timeline risk |\n| Market | CMO | CAC impact, competitive exposure |\n\n### Step 3: Cascade Effect Mapping\n\nThis is the core. Show how Variable A triggers consequences in domains that trigger Variable B's effects:\n\n```\nTRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR)\n  ↓\nCFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months\n  ↓\nCHRO: Hiring freeze; retention risk increases (morale hit)\n  ↓\nCTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen; roadmap slips\n  ↓\nCPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → customer retention risk\n  ↓\nCRO: NRR drops; existing accounts see reduced velocity → more churn risk\n  ↓\nCFO: [Secondary cascade — potential death spiral if not interrupted]\n```\n\nName the cascade explicitly. Show where it can be interrupted.\n\n### Step 4: Severity Matrix\n\nModel three scenarios:\n\n| Scenario | Definition | Recovery |\n|----------|------------|---------|\n| **Base** | One variable hits; others don't | Manageable with plan |\n| **Stress** | Two variables hit simultaneously | Requires significant response |\n| **Severe** | All variables hit; full cascade | Existential; requires board intervention |\n\nFor each severity level:\n- Runway impact\n- ARR impact\n- Headcount impact\n- Timeline to unacceptable state (trigger point)\n\n### Step 5: Trigger Points (Early Warning Signals)\n\nDefine the measurable signal that tells you a scenario is unfolding **before** it's confirmed:\n\n```\nTrigger for Customer Churn Risk:\n  - Sponsor goes dark for >3 weeks\n  - Usage drops >25% MoM\n  - No Q1 QBR confirmed by Dec 1\n\nTrigger for Fundraise Delay:\n  - \u003C3 term sheets after 60 days of process\n  - Lead investor requests >30-day extension on DD\n  - Competitor raises at lower valuation (market signal)\n\nTrigger for Engineering Attrition:\n  - Glassdoor activity from engineering team\n  - 2+ referral interview requests from engineers\n  - Above-market offer counter-required in last 3 months\n```\n\n### Step 6: Hedging Strategies\n\nFor each scenario: actions to take **now** (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does.\n\n| Hedge | Cost | Impact | Owner | Deadline |\n|-------|------|--------|-------|---------|\n| Establish $500K credit line | $5K\u002Fyear | Buys 3 months if churn hits | CFO | 60 days |\n| 12-month retention bonus for 3 key engineers | $90K | Locks team through fundraise | CHRO | 30 days |\n| Diversify to \u003C20% revenue concentration per customer | Sales effort | Reduces single-customer risk | CRO | 2 quarters |\n| Compress fundraise timeline, start parallel process | CEO time | Closes before runways merge | CEO | Immediate |\n\n---\n\n## Output Format\n\nEvery war room session produces:\n\n```\nSCENARIO: [Name]\nVariables: [A, B, C]\nMost likely path: [which combination actually plays out, with probability]\n\nSEVERITY LEVELS\nBase (A only): [runway\u002FARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]\nStress (A+B): [runway\u002FARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]\nSevere (A+B+C): [runway\u002FARR impact] — existential risk: [yes\u002Fno]\n\nCASCADE MAP\n[A → domain impact → B trigger → domain impact → end state]\n\nEARLY WARNING SIGNALS\n- [Signal 1 → which scenario it indicates]\n- [Signal 2 → which scenario it indicates]\n- [Signal 3 → which scenario it indicates]\n\nHEDGES (take these actions now)\n1. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]\n2. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]\n3. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]\n\nRECOMMENDED DECISION\n[One paragraph. What to do, in what order, and why.]\n```\n\n---\n\n## Rules for Good War Room Sessions\n\n**Max 3 variables per scenario.** More than 3 is noise — you can't meaningfully prepare for 5-variable collapse. Model the 3 that actually worry you.\n\n**Quantify or estimate.** \"Revenue drops\" is not useful. \"$420K ARR at risk over 60 days\" is. Use ranges if uncertain.\n\n**Don't stop at first-order effects.** The damage is always in the cascade, not the initial hit.\n\n**Model recovery, not just impact.** Every scenario should have a \"what we do\" path.\n\n**Separate base case from sensitivity.** Don't conflate \"what probably happens\" with \"what could happen.\"\n\n**Don't over-model.** 3-4 scenarios per planning cycle is the right number. More creates analysis paralysis.\n\n---\n\n## Common Scenarios by Stage\n\n**Seed:**\n- Co-founder leaves + product misses launch\n- Funding runs out + bridge terms unfavorable\n\n**Series A:**\n- Miss ARR target + fundraise delayed\n- Key customer churns + competitor raises\n\n**Series B:**\n- Market contraction + burn multiple spikes\n- Lead investor wants pivot + team resists\n\n## Integration with C-Suite Roles\n\n| Scenario Type | Primary Roles | Cascade To |\n|--------------|---------------|------------|\n| Revenue miss | CRO, CFO | CMO (pipeline), COO (cuts), CHRO (layoffs) |\n| Key person departure | CHRO, COO | CTO (if eng), CRO (if sales) |\n| Fundraise failure | CFO, CEO | COO (runway extension), CHRO (hiring freeze) |\n| Security breach | CISO, CTO | CEO (comms), CFO (cost), CRO (customer impact) |\n| Market shift | CEO, CPO | CMO (repositioning), CRO (new segments) |\n| Competitor move | CMO, CRO | CPO (roadmap response), CEO (strategy) |\n\n## References\n- `references\u002Fscenario-planning.md` — Shell methodology, pre-mortem, Monte Carlo, cascade frameworks\n- `scripts\u002Fscenario_modeler.py` — CLI tool for structured scenario modeling\n",{"name":5,"license":15,"metadata":39,"description":7},{"author":40,"domain":41,"updated":42,"version":43,"category":44,"frameworks":45,"python-tools":46},"Alireza Rezvani","strategic-planning",1772668800000,"1.0.0","c-level","scenario-planning","scenario_modeler.py","main","7b610356e36623652299fa2acb477ff821b1d920","upstream-sync\u002Fwork\u002Fclaude-skills\u002Fc-level-advisor\u002Fscenario-war-room",0,"https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Foabdelmaksoud\u002FSuperClaw","https:\u002F\u002Fgithub.com\u002Foabdelmaksoud","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.linkedin.com\u002Fin\u002Fo-abdelmaksoud\u002F","Full-Stack Engineer | AI Systems Architect | Building autonomous multi-agent systems","2026-03-08 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